Researchers Suggest Gaza War Death Toll May Be Much Higher

Gaza War Death Toll Discrepancy

The Gaza war death toll could be significantly higher, researchers say. The Palestinian death toll from the conflict may be substantially greater than the figures reported by the Hamas-run health ministry, as per research published in the Lancet medical journal.

Research Findings

The UK-led study examined data from the first nine months of the war, which commenced when Hamas militants launched an attack on Israel on 7 October 2023. Utilizing information from the health ministry, an online survey of bereaved families, and obituaries, the study estimated that up to 64,260 Palestinians succumbed to traumatic injuries by 30 June 2024, indicating an under-reporting of deaths by 41%.

Disputed Figures

The Palestinian death toll has been a contentious issue, with the UN considering the health ministry's data reliable. However, the ministry's figures do not differentiate between combatants and civilians. A recent UN report revealed that the majority of verified casualties over a six-month period were women and children. Israel has questioned the accuracy of Hamas's figures, claiming to have eliminated over 17,000 militants without providing clear methodology.

Challenges in Data Verification

Israel's restriction on international journalists' access to Gaza, including major media outlets like the BBC, has hindered independent verification of facts on the ground. Researchers employed the "capture-recapture" statistical method to assess the discrepancy in reported death tolls, suggesting that the actual number of deaths from traumatic injuries in the conflict could be significantly higher than official figures.

Estimates and Analysis

The Lancet report projected a death toll ranging from 55,298 to 78,525 individuals, contrasting with the health ministry's reported 37,877 deaths. The accuracy of these figures hinges on the precise identification of deaths due to traumatic injury in the data sets, which could impact the final estimates.

Impact on Vulnerable Populations

The research highlighted that 59% of the deceased individuals, for whom demographic data was available, were women, children, and the elderly. The war in Gaza, triggered by Hamas's initial attack, resulted in significant casualties and led to a massive Israeli military response, as reported by the health ministry.